Acalanes High school students hosted this chat with Steve Andrews,
Ph.D, the coordinator of the Environmental Sciences teaching program
at UC Berkeley. The focus of the chat was worldwide soil erosion, its
effect on agricultural prduction and possible solutions.
| David
Saxton: |
hello |
| sSubi: |
Hi - Did you hear about
the ice shelf breaking off today |
| David
Saxton: |
no, I didn't. which ice
shelf? |
| David
Saxton: |
good evening everyone |
| Caitlyn: |
how are you? |
| Chris
Field: |
Hello |
| David
Saxton: |
welcome Chris, thank you
for joining us |
| Chris
Field: |
It is a pleasure |
| David
Saxton: |
I am doing well... and
you? |
| Caitlyn: |
good, thank you |
| Chris
Field: |
Does anyone know the difference
between the global mean temperature now and that during the last
ice age? |
| David
Saxton: |
I know it is a small margin |
| David
Saxton: |
about 3 dgrees |
| David
Saxton: |
? |
| sSubi: |
Not at all |
| Chris
Field: |
When there was a kilometer
of ice on Wisconsin, the global mean was 5 to 7 C cooler than now. |
| David
Saxton: |
thats a phenomenal difference
that a few degrees makes |
| Chris
Field: |
It doesn't take much temperature
change to make the world a much different place. |
| Chris
Field: |
When we look at the next
century, we are looking at possible warming of 1 to 6 C. |
| sSubi: |
Did you hear about the
big sheet of ice breaking off today in the Antarctica? |
| Chris
Field: |
The situation with Antarctic
ice is really interesting. A number of very important observations
have been made there recently. |
| Chris
Field: |
First, it looks like the
ice volume is getting bigger in some places (even though the ice
is getting much thinner in the arctic). |
| Chris
Field: |
Second, large parts of
Antarctical have gotten cooler recently, even though the entire
world has warmed. |
| sSubi: |
It's getting colder in
Antarctica and warmer in the North? |
| Chris
Field: |
These observations point
to the fact that there are still a lot of details about global warming
that we don't yet understand. |
| Chris
Field: |
In the past 30 years, the
arctic has warmed dramtically (about 1 C per decade) and the arctic
sea ice is about 40% thinner. |
| Chris
Field: |
Still, the pattern appears
to be different in the antarctic. At the moment, the reason for
the difference is unclear. |
| sSubi: |
What do you believe is
the cause |
| Chris
Field: |
These regional differences
don't imply that there is something wrong with our understanding.
In fact, all of the climate models predict large regional differences,
including some places that may cool. |
| Chris
Field: |
The reason for the antarctic
cooling may have something to do with ocean circulation. The oceans
transport large amount of heat to both poles, and any slowdown in
this transport cools the local temperatures. |
| cyclebob: |
I was wondering what relationship
polar warming has to the thinning of the ozone layer (due to freons) |
| Caitlyn: |
Have the computer models
which predict global warming become more advanced? |
| Chris
Field: |
Good question. Ozone is
a powerful greenhouse gas. But there isn't much of it. Thethinning
of the ozone is a pressure for cooling, but not a large one. |
| cyclebob: |
Maybe that can partially
explain the cooling effect you mentioned in the antarctic |
| Chris
Field: |
The models to predict climate
change are always improving. We are getting a better understanding
of the science and we are getting faster computers, which lets us
try more experiments and run the models with more detail. |
| Chris
Field: |
yes, ozone loss is a possibel
contriubutor to antarctic cooling. |
| sSubi: |
Did the vote to not raise
the mileage requirements bug you |
| David
Saxton: |
so we have two issues here
- ozone loss and greenhouse gas build-up? |
| Chris
Field: |
Improving auto mileage
is one of the best options for reducing greenhouse warming. |
| cyclebob: |
And ozone loos allows more
UV to get in |
| David
Saxton: |
which makes it hotter? |
| cyclebob: |
I don't think so..but not
sure |
| Chris
Field: |
Yes, warming through the
greenhouse effect and ozone loss are two completely different issues.
Ozone allows more UV to penetrate, which is a cause of cancer and
other problems. |
| David
Saxton: |
Ok that makes sense |
| Chris
Field: |
Ozone is also a greenhouse
gas, which prevents heat from escaping. Stratospheric ozone (high
in the atmosphere) is more important as a UV screen than as a greenhouse
gas. |
| Chris
Field: |
In California, we expect
warming over the next century to be somewhat greater than the global
average. |
| sSubi: |
Why |
| David
Saxton: |
yeah, why? |
| Chris
Field: |
The main reason is that
California's climate is strongly controlled by the Pacific. The
oceans warm more slowly than the land, but the air flow over them
is quite predictable. |
| Chris
Field: |
In other regions, the weather
patterns will change so dramatically that the climate change is
much smaller or much larger than the average. |
| cyclebob: |
California has much tougher
air quality laws than the rest of the nation. |
| Chris
Field: |
It is important to remember
that air quality laws have very little to do with greenhouse gases. |
| David
Saxton: |
because of the way they
are distributed in the atmosphere? |
| cyclebob: |
Co2 comes right out of
tailpipes |
| Chris
Field: |
The air quality laws concern
oxidants and compounds that reduce visibility, but not CO2, which
is the most important greenhouse gas. |
| Caitlyn: |
is there anything that
you can recomend that we do to try to help the situation? |
| Chris
Field: |
California is in a great
place for three kinds of contributions. |
| Chris
Field: |
First, per person greenhouse
gas emissions are high here and any cuts will have a disproportionate
effect. |
| Chris
Field: |
Second, California is a
lifestyle leader for the rest of the world, and lifestyle changes
that redce greenhouse gas emnissions are likely to be adopted other
places. |
| Chris
Field: |
Third, California is a
center of high tech, and many of the long term solutions will be
new technologies, in addition to conservation. |
| Chris
Field: |
What can individuals do?
Consider the following... |
| Chris
Field: |
Encourage your family to
drive a fuel efficient car -- maybe a hybrid |
| cyclebob: |
What is the biggest contributor
of greenhouse gases in Calif? |
| Chris
Field: |
Keep the thermostat to
a reasonable setting and try to avoid air conditioning unless it
is really necessary. |
| Chris
Field: |
In California, greenhouses
are about 1/3 from transportation, 1/3 from manufacturing, and 1/3
from buildings |
| David
Saxton: |
i have my views about the
nessecity of air conditioning... |
| cyclebob: |
I thought at least 2/3
came from the automobile. |
| sSubi: |
What about buildings? |
| Chris
Field: |
Also, people should think
about how big a house they need. They should try to live close to
the places they need to go. |
| Chris
Field: |
Houses should be well insulated.
Many California regions have impressive rebates on solar power systems. |
| Chris
Field: |
Buildings use energy and
contribute to ggreenhouse warming through heating, cooling, and
lighting, as well as through the energy needed to make the building
marterials. |
| Chris
Field: |
Some of the most effective
ways to save energy are also the simplest. |
| Chris
Field: |
Turn lights off when you
are not in a room. |
| sSubi: |
What can we do now that
would get others getting with it |
| Chris
Field: |
In summer, dry clothes
on the line instead of in a dryer. |
| Chris
Field: |
If you are only going a
short distance, walk or ride a bike instead of driving. |
| Chris
Field: |
One of the most important
things is to make it cool to lead a "low-carbon" lifestyle |
| sSubi: |
Like how |
| Chris
Field: |
In this country, it used
to be cool to smoke. Now its not. What led to the change? |
| David
Saxton: |
medical awareness? |
| David
Saxton: |
actually probably not... |
| Chris
Field: |
I think social trends often
have some underlying objective cause and a much larger social pressure
cause. If millions of people decide it is cool to reduce CO2 emissions,
it becomes cool. |
| sSubi: |
I think people got scared
about smoking |
| Chris
Field: |
Unfortunately, Madison
Avenue is often against us in this effort. |
| David
Saxton: |
if you are able to convince
people you are close to, and they convince others, eventually the
trend spreads |
| Chris
Field: |
How often do you see an
ad for a really cool compact car or a picture of a rich family choosing
a small, energy-efficient house? |
| David
Saxton: |
it is very difficult for
a grassroots issue to compete on a big advertising scale, it is
just too costly |
| Chris
Field: |
I agree, trends spread
when smart people start them. |
| sSubi: |
The anti-smoking ads are
incredible. |
| David
Saxton: |
yeah |
| cyclebob: |
Wait till you see the next
generation of automobiles |
| Chris
Field: |
Good point, and there are
some excellent groups encouraging conseravtion and low emissions
lifestyles |
| David
Saxton: |
absolutely |
| David
Saxton: |
there are so many obscure
issues though |
| cyclebob: |
they will be very environmentally-friendly |
| David
Saxton: |
smoking hits very close
to home |
| David
Saxton: |
relative to, say, deforestation |
| Chris
Field: |
One of the strongest points
for avoiding climate change is the importance of lifestyle for Californians. |
| David
Saxton: |
lifestyle is probably the
most important thing to address |
| sSubi: |
Global warming has to hit
close to home about now not some time in the future. |
| Chris
Field: |
Most Californias are very
into their lifestyle, whatever it is, and many are connected with
climate. |
| cyclebob: |
We have one of these cars
now, and its just as fast as any other car |
| Chris
Field: |
The point about the distance
in the future is an excellent one. Still, people are used to making
decisions about things far in the future. |
| Chris
Field: |
We buy insurance for the
slim possibility of a fire. Why not make investments to avoid the
large possibility of climate change? |
| David
Saxton: |
somehow the weight of the
issue has to be communicated without calling up peoples defenses |
| Chris
Field: |
That is why it is so important
to make it cool to conserve. |
| cyclebob: |
because there are powerful
people that still drny that climate change exists |
| Chris
Field: |
I disagree. Even the professional
skeptics agree that the climate is changing and most agree that
people are the cause. |
| cyclebob: |
the other day I heard something
disturbing... |
| Chris
Field: |
The discussion now is on
the magnitude of the change and whether it is worth making investments
to minimize its impacts. |
| sSubi: |
I know someone who thinks
it is going to be colder in 25 years and he's a scientist. |
| David
Saxton: |
there was, though, a group
of "scientists" paid by a coalition of major petrol companies whose
purpose was to disregard evidence indicating that global temperature
was rising. |
| David
Saxton: |
i don't know if the group
still exists |
| Caitlyn: |
that's no good |
| Chris
Field: |
It is important to remember
that scientists are just people. Some are vain, some are willing
to sell out for money. Still, the scientific process is very good
at getting eventually to the objective reality. |
| cyclebob: |
on one of the talk shows
was Trent Lott, a powerful politician who defended all SUVs and
did not want any increased mileage regulation. |
| David
Saxton: |
true. what i was rferring
to would be considered a pollution of science, with money wagered
on one outcome of the experiment |
| Chris
Field: |
The debate on the mileage
standards is frustrating. |
| cyclebob: |
we have to change that
mindset |
| Chris
Field: |
It is clear that we could
make, excellent, powerful cars that use much less gas. |
| sSubi: |
Are you hopeful? |
| Chris
Field: |
My feeling is that the
future of the auto industry is in building the cars that will be
popular in China and India. I will wager that those will be very
fuel efficient. If we want to make money in cars, we should be emphasizing
efficient ones. |
| David
Saxton: |
I am skeptical of any revolutions
in the auto industry |
| cyclebob: |
We have a hybrid now, 1/2
gas engine, and 1/2 electric engine. Gets 60 miles/gal |
| Chris
Field: |
Hybrids are a great option.
Good work. |
| cyclebob: |
thanks..I also bike alot |
| David
Saxton: |
Are hybrids enough? The
problem remains that if everyone drove a hybrid car we would still
have a problem. |
| cyclebob: |
fuel celled vehicles are
right around the corner |
| Chris
Field: |
Sooner or later, we need
to move to non carbon based fuels. |
| David
Saxton: |
the resource costs of making
cars is still unsustainable though, isn't it? |
| sSubi: |
population is big. More
people, more cars .... |
| David
Saxton: |
not to mention the integration
time into the market....some cars still use carbeurators even today |
| Chris
Field: |
Most futurists point to
a hydrogen based energy system. It is still not fclear how we get
the hydrogen (fusion?, solar?) but it is the most likely future. |
| cyclebob: |
the problem is..what to
do with the batteries of electric cars |
| David
Saxton: |
learn to recycle them or
stop making them |
| David
Saxton: |
it is silly to replace
one envieonmental problem with another |
| cyclebob: |
right |
| Caitlyn: |
exactly |
| Chris
Field: |
For electrics, we need
a breakthrough in battery technology. Until we have that, full electrics
will continue to be of limited use. |
| David
Saxton: |
The biggest question for
me is this - is there any technology that is sustainable?/ |
| David
Saxton: |
more and more advanced
technology requires more specialized manufacturing conditions that
require more and more energy |
| Chris
Field: |
Solar is sustainable, biomass
is sustainable. |
| David
Saxton: |
biomass is certainly sustainable
- how are solar panels made? |
| Chris
Field: |
Eventually, we need to
ask how many people the world can support. It may be that nothing
is sustainable for 6-10 billion people. |
| Caitlyn: |
i agree, but how do we
make other people see that? |
| cyclebob: |
what do you mean by biomass? |
| Chris
Field: |
Solar panels are basically
silicon semiconductors. They used to be made like integrated circuits,
but there are some new, cheaper technologies. |
| Chris
Field: |
Biomass is plants and trees
-- they grow by removing CO2 from the air, and oxidizing them returns
it to the air. It is the way nature has always worked. |
| David
Saxton: |
it is also the single most
efficient use of energy and resources |
| David
Saxton: |
no technology we have comes
close |
| Chris
Field: |
Unfortunately, current
energy demands can't be met by biomass. Even solar doesn't look
likely to cover the gap. |
| Chris
Field: |
In the future, we will
need to address consumption as well as energy supply. |
| David
Saxton: |
we probably need to cut
back then...most tecnology removes biomass. |
| Caitlyn: |
its a catch 22 |
| cyclebob: |
yeah |
| Chris
Field: |
Personally, I think we
are already seeing a high cost to our dependence on fossil fuelds. |
| David
Saxton: |
yeah |
| Chris
Field: |
How much of our military
budget is based on defending oil supplies? |
| David
Saxton: |
right now, an awful lot
of it |
| Chris
Field: |
How much of the environmental
degradation in the last 50 years has been related to automobiles? |
| cyclebob: |
alot!! |
| Chris
Field: |
Can we affort to continue
our dependence on fossil fuels? |
| cyclebob: |
no |
| David
Saxton: |
no! |
| sSubi: |
Seems like we ought to
subsidize the oil cos to develop alternative methods and take away
any oil subsidy |
| cyclebob: |
If we can learn extract
hydrogen out of water, that is the best answer in the next 10-20
years. |
| David
Saxton: |
i think the only reliable
soultion is to create a society that gives back to the earth |
| Chris
Field: |
We know how to get hydrogen
from water. It just takes energy ... do we use solar, fusion, tides,
wind, biomass... or maybe all of them |
| David
Saxton: |
we have enough science
at this point to be far more sustainable than we are |
| David
Saxton: |
there is just no demand
for us to use it |
| cyclebob: |
its just economic yet |
| Chris
Field: |
Part of the problem is
a classic tragedy of the commons. |
| David
Saxton: |
probably the most effective
place to start is young children |
| Chris
Field: |
We let all of society pay
the costs of the environmental damage done by a few. If we could
get the prices right and charge people for the damage they do, there
might be hope. |
| Chris
Field: |
That's what we already
do for SO2 and other oxidants. |
| David
Saxton: |
it may take something beyond
money |
| David
Saxton: |
but that is a practical
place to start |
| Chris
Field: |
In the economists terms,
we need to internalize the costs. Now, too many things are external
to the system. |
| David
Saxton: |
Ideas like the ones coming
out of Rocky Mountain Institute |
| cyclebob: |
such as? |
| David
Saxton: |
natural capitalism |
| David
Saxton: |
which is capitalism with
multiple bottom lines |
| cyclebob: |
Is it practical? |
| David
Saxton: |
factoring ing social and
environmental costs |
| David
Saxton: |
from what I have heard,
yes |
| Chris
Field: |
I think the best places
to start are (1) making it cool to lead a low carbon lifestyle and
(2) pushing for taxes and incentives that make the system more rational |
| David
Saxton: |
I agree |
| cyclebob: |
right now its VERY cool
to drive SUVs. I get sick of seeing all of them clogging the roads! |
| David
Saxton: |
yes...i feel the same way |
| Chris
Field: |
My fingers are tired. Is
there more to cover? |
| sSubi: |
I think people stopped
wearing furs and stopped smoking because they were scared |
| David
Saxton: |
well thank you again for
chatting with us Chris, maybe if there are any more quick questions? |
| Chris
Field: |
ok, shoot |
| sSubi: |
Thanks alot Chris |
| David
Saxton: |
I was wondering what the
best resource for more info on global warming is? |
| David
Saxton: |
technical info, etc. |
| cyclebob: |
thanks Chris...it was vary
educational |
| David
Saxton: |
indeed |
| Chris
Field: |
check out the IPCC web
site and the site for the Union of Concerned Scientists |
| Caitlyn: |
thank you for your time |
| David
Saxton: |
great, I'll check them
out. |
| David
Saxton: |
have a good night Chris |
| Chris
Field: |
Thanks to all of you. I
enjoyed it greatly. |
| cyclebob: |
thanks alot David |
| David
Saxton: |
Caitlyn where are you logged
in from? |
| David
Saxton: |
I'll see you guys next
time......any questions comments etc im at dman33@earthlink.net |
|
|
